聚焦博鳌论坛：中国将持续成为全球的制造枢纽

Experts: China to stay world's most important manufacturing hub

正在举行的博鳌亚洲论坛2023年年会上，对于中国是否还是“世界工厂”的讨论热度很高。多年来，中国制造业生产力水平不断提升，企业在中国建厂生产成本低、生产效率高，吸引各类资本来投资建厂，形成了中国制造业在产能和产量上的规模优势。

Global trade dependence on Asia, including China, remains stable, and the country will never lose its status as the world's most important manufacturing hub, despite certain US moves that have been disrupting global industrial and supply chains, said senior industry experts and company executives at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2023 on Tuesday.

周二，在博鳌亚洲论坛2023年年会上，资深行业专家和公司高管表示，尽管美国的某些举动扰乱了全球产业链和供应链，但全球对包括中国在内的亚洲货物贸易的依存度保持稳定，中国永远不会失去世界最重要制造业中心的地位。

Their comments emerged after a report published at the forum on Tuesday said global dependence on Asian trade in goods remained stable, and the trade dependence among Asian economies, including China, remained at a relatively high level.

在此之前，周二在博鳌亚洲论坛2023年年会上发表的一份报告称，全球对亚洲货物贸易的依存度保持稳定，亚洲经济体之间的贸易依存度保持较高水平。

The highest level of dependence — 21 percent — was found among ASEAN countries. Japan and South Korea's dependence on China was over 20 percent, and the dependence of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and CPTPP countries on China was close to 20 percent, the report said, based on data till 2021.

报告显示，从2021年数据看，东盟成员之间的依存度相对最高，达到21%；日本、韩国对中国的依存度在20%以上；东盟国家和《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）国家对中国的依存度也接近20%。

The CPTPP refers to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade agreement among Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.

CPTPP是澳大利亚、文莱、加拿大、智利、日本、马来西亚、墨西哥、新西兰、秘鲁、新加坡和越南之间的自由贸易协定。

Among the G20 economies, most saw their trade dependence on China rise between 2017 and 2021, with only the United States and France seeing a decline in their trade dependence on China, the report said.

报告称，在G20经济体中，大多数国家在2017年至2021年期间对中国的贸易依存度上升，只有美国和法国对中国的贸易依存度下降。

"It is actually good for China that some labor-intensive industries would move away, as it would help the country's industries to upgrade to a higher level," said Yao Yang, dean of the National School of Development at Peking University.

北京大学国家发展研究院院长姚洋说：“对中国来说，一些劳动密集型产业的转移实际上是件好事，因为这将有助于中国的产业升级到更高的水平。”

Yao said China will not likely lose its status as the world's largest manufacturing hub for at least 10 to 20 years. "With some labor-intensive industries shifting to some ASEAN economies and developing countries, it is geopolitically beneficial for China as a whole, as these economies are more integrated into China's manufacturing ecosystem."

姚洋说，中国至少在10到20年内不会失去世界最大制造业中心的地位。“随着一些劳动密集型产业向一些东盟经济体和发展中国家转移，从整体上看，这在地缘政治上对中国是有利的，因为这些经济体更加融入了中国的制造业生态系统。”

The Boao report also said Asia has a significant advantage in producing competitive products in global value chains.

博鳌亚洲论坛的报告还指出，亚洲在全球价值链产品竞争中优势突出。。

Of the top 22 intermediate products from Asian factories in terms of export value, 21 have shown a significant rise in exports, with electronic component products, such as integrated circuits, growing the fastest, at a growth rate of up to 28.8 percent in 2021, the report said.

报告称，从亚洲工厂出口额排名前22位的中间产品看，21种产品出口增长明显，包括集成电路在内的电子元件产品增长最快，2021年增速高达28.8%。

China was still a dominant player in the trade of intermediate goods in Asia. Among the 22 most traded intermediates, China led in 20 of them, it said.

中国仍保持在亚洲中间产品贸易中的主导地位。在交易量最大的22种中间产品中，中国有20种处于领先地位。

Fabrizio Ferri, head of APAC Region of Fincantieri, one of the world's largest shipbuilding groups, said that China indeed faces some difficulties like disruptions in industrial and supply chains.

全球最大的造船集团之一Fincantieri亚太地区负责人Fabrizio Ferri表示，中国确实面临着一些困难，如产业链和供应链的中断。

"But China would still be a major production center," he said. "If we have to move to Southeast Asia, it is more because we want to get close to the market and our consumers there."

他说：“但中国仍将是一个主要的制造业中心。如果我们不得不搬到东南亚，更多是因为我们想要接近那里的市场和消费者。”

Zhang Yuyan, director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with China Daily on Tuesday that a significant change over the past three years has been that Western countries like the US have begun to pursue so-called "friend shoring", or manufacturing in, and sourcing from, countries with shared values.

中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所所长张宇燕周二在接受《中国日报》采访时表示，过去三年的一个重大变化是，美国等西方国家开始追求所谓的“朋友支持”，即在拥有共同价值观的国家制造和采购。

"Leveraging political power to intervene in the free functioning of industrial and supply chains is a very big threat to the long-term and stable growth of the entire global economy," Zhang said.

张宇燕说：“利用政治力量干预产业链和供应链的自由运作，对全球经济的长期稳定增长是一个非常大的威胁。”

来源：中国日报